05-Dec-2006, 10:49 PM
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Wedbush: Xbox 360 to sell 750k in Nov and 1.5-2 million in Dec
Analyst Michael Pachter at Wedbush Morgan has released his preview of the NPD U.S. game charts for November, and is forecasting sales of $785 million, up 12% compared to last year.
The report, suggests $345 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS), representing year-over-year growth of $196 million, or 131%. However, current generation software sales, it's suggested, may be $440 million, reflecting year-over-year decrease of $112 million (-20%).
For hardware, Wedbush states: "Consumers appear willing to purchase compelling content for current generation consoles in spite of the recent launches of the unobtainable PS3 and Wii. Through October, NPD data shows that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.9 million units, averaging approximately 250,000 units monthly for the last six months."
Going forward, Pachter comments: "We expect sales of 750,000 Xbox 360 hardware units in November, and between 1.5 - 2 million units in December. Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 continues to lag Sony's promised 1.2 million units by year end, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3."
However, a major note of caution is sounded over next-gen console pricing: "Once supply and demand of the PS3 and Wii are in balance (expected some time after April 2007), we think that hardware unit sales will be more modest than they were in the analogous period of 2002, when console prices averaged under $200. In our view, once hardcore gamers have
obtained their next generation consoles, the higher average prices will be an impediment to rapid sell-through, and we expect cycle-to-cycle declines of 10% or more to persist through the summer of 2007."
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